Check out our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and get MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET
and the fantasy picks are based on ESPN 10-team, standard scoring leagues.
Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated publish time.
Jays’ Francis wants to keep the momentum going
Francis of Bowden had largely fallen off the fantasy radar in most standard leagues prior to last week’s games, but his recent performance against the Los Angeles Angels turned heads. In Saturday’s game against the Halos, the 28-year-old right-hander managed a no-hitter until the ninth inning before allowing a solo home run to Taylor Ward. He finished the night with one run in eight innings, allowing one hit and posting a career-high 12 strikeouts.
While that one-hit, 12-K performance was undoubtedly Francis’ most dominant outing of the season, he’s actually been pitching pretty well since officially being added to the Toronto Blue Jays’ rotation earlier this month. Before the one-hitter, he had allowed just three earned runs in his previous three starts, allowing seven hits and one walk in 19 innings while posting 22 strikeouts.
The underlying numbers suggest Francis succeeds more with his position than his pure ability, as he doesn’t throw particularly hard (his fastball averages 93.3 mph) and is below average at generating swings and misses on throws outside the zone (28.3%). That makes him a bit riskier for fantasy purposes and likely limits his potential, but it’s hard to ignore the results he’s produced so far.
Thursday’s game against the Boston Red Sox will be a tough test for Francis, so he’s not a sure thing for streaming. Still, at this point in the season, I’d recommend taking advantage of his streak. He’s a free agent in 70% of ESPN fantasy leagues, so there’s a good chance he’ll be available in yours.
Everything else worth knowing about Thursday
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Since Jordan Montgomery was moved to the bullpen, Ryne Nelson (17% of players in ESPN leagues) will remain in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ starting lineup for the rest of the season. The right-hander has definitely earned his spot, posting a 2.76 ERA and 0.95 WHIP with 62 Ks in 62 innings over his last 10 appearances (nine starts). While Thursday’s opponent, the New York Mets, have hit well in August (107 wRC+), they also have a 25.6% strikeout rate (eighth-highest in MLB), giving Nelson some nice strikeout advantages in this matchup.
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Aaron Civale (13% on roster) has been inconsistent since being signed by the Milwaukee Brewers, but on Thursday he finds himself in an attractive position, facing a San Francisco Giants offense that was below average in August (96 wRC+) and has the third-highest strikeout rate (27%) in baseball, enough to consider Civale as a streaming option for Thursday’s 11 games.
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Lucas Erceg The Kansas City Royals’ Erceg has been one of the best closers in fantasy over the past month, yet he’s only on the roster in 17% of ESPN leagues. Since being traded from Oakland at the deadline, the right-hander has thrown 12 1/3 scoreless innings with just one walk and 15 strikeouts. Erceg has also recorded six holds and five saves during that span. Even if you don’t necessarily need saves, he can improve your odds on days like Thursday when there isn’t a full schedule.
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Valente Bellozo holds a solid 3.35 ERA in his first seven major league appearances, but it looks like he’s doing it with flair. His xERA is 5.04, and his hard hit rate of 47.4% would be the 13th worst in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify. That house of cards could easily collapse on Thursday during a visit to Coors Field, where Ryan McMahon (45%), Nolan Jones (33%), Ezequiel Tovar (26%), Michael Toglia (12%) and Charlie Blackmon (6%) are all possible streaming options.
Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday
Discharge report
For the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers may be struggling with mild fatigue and who is most likely to snag a save or make a surprise hold in their place, check out the latest Closer Chart, updated each morning.
Hit report
Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with our Forecaster projections. Each day, we provide an updated 10-day preview for each team, predicting matchup quality for hitters (overall and by hand) and base stealers.
The best batsmen with less than 50% squad for Thursday
The best and worst hitters of the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system developed by Derek Carty that uses modern methods used in MLB front offices, taking into account numerous factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, the catcher’s pitch-framing strategy and more.
