It’s been 47 years since the Portland Trail Blazers won the only NBA title in franchise history. It’s been 24 years since they last made a serious run at a title. When the gap between the two teams is decades, fans can get a little nervous. That’s the theme of today’s Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Dave,
I’m in my 30s and have been a fan of this franchise for a few years since the last time we actually made it to the Conference Finals (Y2K). This team could at least call themselves one of the teams to beat, if not THE team. In fact, every few years over the last century they’ve been able to call themselves one of the teams to beat without having to worry about the strength of their schedule. For as long as I’ve been a fan, though, that hasn’t happened. They always promise a future where they’re one of the teams to beat in the league with or without winning a championship, but that was almost exactly two decades ago now. I know we have at least three possible Rookies of the Year on the team (Scoot and Sharpe didn’t win, but Clingan still could), but I can’t shake the feeling that only means a bright future everywhere but Portland. I know it won’t be this year, but is a true contender in Portland too much to ask for this century? I mean, look, I just want to make sure that this rebuild actually puts the team in the big leagues long term and that it doesn’t stunt our growth.
M
I took the rare step of leaving your question unchanged because I liked the passion behind it. I hear you. I think a lot of Blazers fans feel that way.
Let us nag at your premise Only a bit before we begin. Of Portland’s recent rookies, only Scoot Henderson was considered a contender for Rookie of the Year, and even he was predicted to finish a clear second to Victor Wembanyama. Shaedon Sharpe was a wild card, a true underdog drafted based on his athleticism and potential. No one predicted him to be a ROY except in the “roll a d20 and see if you can get a critical hit” sense.
Donovan Clingan was impressive in Summer League, but I don’t know if he’s seriously considered for the award. If he is, it’s because this rookie class is a hodgepodge of similarly talented players, not because of his skill level. Donovan Clingan or Brandon Roy. Which rookie do you put on this team? 101 out of 100 people would choose Roy over Clingan or one of his classmates. That puts this year’s crop in perspective.
If the Blazers go 0-3 for Rookie of the Year and fail to develop into a contender with that trio, it doesn’t indicate a Portland curse, as if they flourished in Detroit instead. It just means they weren’t that good. Of the three, only Henderson’s failure would raise eyebrows. The other two were decent swings, but speculative. Failure to select Scoot would be a valid criticism, but that’s one draft, not three.
So is one true Portland contender per century too much to ask? Maybe. But there were 2.5 contenders last century — which is beyond your yardstick — and we still have 76 years left in this century. Your wish could come true before you turn 100.
I don’t think we recognize how difficult it is to build a championship-caliber team, though. Making the playoffs is easy. Over the last 20 years, making the Conference Finals has been an achievable feat for many teams, so much so that you probably don’t remember all the franchises that have done it. (Hint: It’s almost all of them.) But one bona fide Contender, NBA Finals participant or world champion? That is rare and difficult.
Look at the great teams in Portland’s history. I can’t speak much for the 1977 championship team. I don’t know much about the league environment at the time, just that Portland beat Dr. J and Co. and beat Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the process. Not bad.
I know more about the Drexler teams and Rasheed Wallace’s traveling all-star band. Both could be said to be ahead of their time. Clyde’s Blazers were a precursor to Michael Jordan’s Chicago Bulls, not in style of play but in composition: highly athletic, led by a dominant and accurate winger, with balance throughout the lineup. They could also have been compared to Isaiah Thomas’ Pistons, whom they beat in the 1990 NBA Finals. Wallace’s teams were a slightly more name-dropping version of another Pistons team that would win it all in 2004.
These connections are not watertight, but they are valid. Portland had something that was both unique (or at least somewhat unique) and different. Their basic structure was right, their talent was undeniable. This combination allowed them to compete.
But when has that happened since then? The Blazers drafted well in the 2000s and early 2010s. They made enough trades to keep their lineups credible. But they never found good enough position against the rest of the league to develop an edge.
Their best chance, which still hurts to this day, was the great trio of Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge and Greg Oden. Portland signed all three players in two consecutive drafts. With so much skill, talent and sheer size, they were able to create an era of their own with a combination that no one else in the NBA could match. Injuries to Roy and Oden derailed that plan.
Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum were good picks in 2012 and 2013, but that team was structured similarly to the Golden State Warriors, who were already on the rise when Portland’s young backcourt got good. The Blazers were not ahead, but just behind. They did well until they met the Warriors in the playoffs, which seemed to happen every season. Then the diehard originals got rid of the copycats. If you had taken away the Warriors and used the Blazers as a prime example of this type of roster, the story might have been different.
Now the Blazers will rebuild and hope to find the magic combination of talent, style of play and window of opportunity that will allow them to break through. There is no indication that they have any of those elements so far, and without them they will not succeed at the highest level.
Note that one of those factors, the window of opportunity, depends on the progress of teams across the league. That’s out of Portland’s control. Wallace’s competitors, who you loved, faced Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant in an era when superstars dominated everything, including the positive ratings of the league itself. Put Shaq in 2024 and it will be much harder for him to dominate than in his own years because playing styles and athletic ability have changed so much. Portland couldn’t control the Lakers’ dominance in the early 2000s any more than they can control the rules and rosters around them today.
That makes it hard to predict the competition. Neither you nor I can say the Blazers will pull it off. Even if they develop a good mix, it will come down to finding the right time and the right list of opponents. But that also means we can’t say they will habit either. Maybe they’re a Cooper Flagg and a few years away from their next high? Keep that in mind as you watch them grow and we’ll see what happens.
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