The months-long negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a ceasefire and the release of hostages were the diplomatic equivalent of And every day the groundhog greets youAnd the U.S. officials tasked with getting those talks across the finish line have been instrumental in creating the very bad, never-ending movie we (not to mention the hostages’ families and the more than two million Palestinians in Gaza) have been forced to watch since President Biden unveiled his ceasefire plan in late May.
In the months since, Washington has made one verbal gaffe after another, behaving arrogantly and claiming progress where there has been none. It seems that the war in Gaza is so hopeless and depressing that U.S. officials cannot help but inject a little optimism into the proceedings, even though Israel’s and Hamas’s positions remain at opposite ends of the spectrum. Keeping the faith is one thing; putting reality ahead of one’s emotional well-being is quite another.
The frequency with which the Biden administration has claimed imminent success or suggested that talks are moving toward a final agreement suggests we are dealing with a systemic problem. The list is long. On July 12, Biden tweeted that while Israel and Hamas still had hard work ahead of them, both had agreed to a framework agreement. On July 19, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a security conference that ceasefire talks were “within the ten yard line.” About a month later, Biden claimed again, “We are closer to an agreement than we have ever been.” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield echoed that narrative last week in a speech to the U.N. Security Council—a successful outcome, she said, “is within sight.”
The Palestinians in Gaza are still waiting. So are the Israelis, desperate to free their loved ones after 11 months in Hamas captivity. So are the mediators, who continue to shuttle between Doha, Cairo and Jerusalem with papers in hand, hoping against hope that a consensus can eventually be reached. But the so-called “bridge proposal” presented to Israel and Hamas earlier this month appears to be stalling. And civilians are still dying in Gaza – tens of thousands have been killed and over 90,000 more have been injured.
But that is not to say there has been no movement at all since those talks began earlier this year. For example, Hamas no longer demands that Israel commit in advance to ending the war before releasing a group of hostages in the first phase of a deal. The Israeli negotiating team appears willing to release some high-ranking, hard-line Palestinian security prisoners if it creates the conditions for a hostage release. Israel and Hamas both support reconstruction in Gaza, which is a cesspool of despair, disease, rubble and internally displaced people. The fact that the talks have not officially collapsed is a good sign, even if it is the lowest hurdle that can be cleared.
Still, there is little encouragement from the outside. Although Israel and Hamas have modified some of their original demands, their core positions have not changed. Both are seeking very different end results. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains firmly convinced that the military elimination of Hamas is achievable for the Israeli military. As a result, he is reluctant to accept a deal that leaves Hamas a viable force in Gaza – even if it means getting all the hostages back. Hamas wants to end the war as soon as possible, not necessarily because it is concerned about the Palestinians in Gaza, but because it wants to save its own lives and ensure the survival of the movement.
This is the most fundamental question standing in the way of a deal – when, or even if, the war will end. But assuming Israel and Hamas can reach agreement on this issue, another, more concrete question looms: Will Israeli forces be able to hold their positions along the Philadelphia and Netzarim corridors? The first corridor is a 15-kilometer stretch along the Egypt-Gaza border, the second is an Israeli line that divides Gaza in half. Here, too, Hamas wants all troops to leave; but Netanyahu insists that these forces stay to ensure Hamas cannot regroup by moving its personnel and smuggling weapons across the Egypt-Gaza border. Mediators have spent days trying to resolve differences by suggesting that Israel thin out its presence in Philadelphia near populated areas. So far, this has not satisfied Hamas.
The negotiators are putting on a brave face all the time. And who knows, maybe with some creative interpretation and quibbling, an agreement can be reached. But given what we have seen since October, the chances of that happening are very slim. Whatever the case, the US government should shut up and stop trying to convince us that progress is imminent.
