The Oklahoma City Thunder pulled off a surprise 57 wins last year to secure first place in the Western Conference. As the second-youngest team in the NBA, no one expected the Thunder to survive last year’s rough and tumble Western Conference, but they did it thanks to the Most Valuable Player runner-up, Coach of the Year, some of the best players in the sport and two rising stars.
However, it wasn’t all sunshine and roses in Bricktown. Josh Giddey’s unfortunate bout culminated in his 218-game NBA playoff streak being interrupted and the lack of depth in the frontcourt punishing them in key actions.
When Chet Holmgren left the court, the Thunder were reeling from a six-game losing streak by zero points — upgrading the replacement center suggests Oklahoma City will improve dramatically. Just as swapping out the misfit Giddey for 40 percent shooter and defensive ace Alex Caruso checks all the boxes to turn an already strong starting lineup into one of the best five-man lineups in sports.
This has resulted in Oklahoma City being the favorite to win the Western Conference, with an overall win percentage of 56.5 according to FanDuel. The boys from Bricktown also have the second-best odds to win the NBA Finals, behind only the Boston Celtics.
There’s not much room for improvement in the win column, though – winning 60 games is incredibly difficult, but not impossible. The bottom line is that the Thunder are looking to explore the roster, mix and match lineups, and use 10-12 more players each night during the 82-game season.
With those moving parts and the integration of two key contributors who weren’t in OKC a year ago, there’s a chance the ball can bounce just enough against the Thunder to lower the 57-win total while putting Oklahoma City in a better position to contend for a championship than it was a year ago.
Evaluating this season won’t be as clear-cut as it has been in the past. The ability to shape the Thunder’s 2024-25 season won’t be as simple as looking at win totals compared to last year. Even if the Thunder win 56 or fewer games, that doesn’t mean the team has taken a step back.
However, there’s also a chance Oklahoma City can continue to improve its win percentage if injury numbers are similar to last year and the Thunder have a core that cares more about regular-season games than most. No matter how this season turns out, it will be important to evaluate it with an eye that considers context rather than just baseline numbers like the record.
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