Israel and Hezbollah attacks: The Middle East may have moved away from the brink of regional war – at least for now

CNN
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For nearly a month, people in Lebanon and Israel have been preparing for a major war. A deadly rocket attack from Lebanon last month on the town of Majdal Shams in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights This was followed by an Israeli retaliatory strike in which Hezbollah’s top commander was killed in southern Beirut.

The powerful Iran-backed group vowed to respond. The threat sparked a series of flight cancellations on both sides of the border, a chorus of governments imploring their citizens to leave Lebanon and Israel, and breathless diplomatic efforts to avert an escalation that Western governments feared could spark a regional conflict.

On Sunday morning, Hezbollah said it had met its expected response by shooting down hundreds of Drones and Katyusha rockets, short-range missiles from the Soviet era.

The swarm of aircraft, it was said, was intended to overwhelm Israel’s vaunted air defense systems and clear a path to its targets: 11 Israeli military sites in northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said all Hezbollah drones had been intercepted.

Israeli government officials said they had preemptively attacked Hezbollah targets during the night to prevent a much larger attack; numerous rocket launchers in Lebanon were hit.

According to the Lebanese Ministry of Health, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants, three people were killed in these Israeli attacks.

The cross-border shelling on Sunday morning marked a significant escalation after 11 months of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, but it appears to have dampened fears of a wider war for now.

In Israel, authorities soon lifted security restrictions in the country’s northernmost region, the so-called Upper Galilee. In Lebanon, Hezbollah said it had halted its attacks on Israel for the day.

This signals the resumption of low-intensity conflict on the border. It also appears to mark the end of the expected escalation in Lebanon that has once again brought the Middle East to the brink of all-out war. Hezbollah has said its attack on Israel has been “carefully” concluded, but that more attacks could be carried out.

But while Hezbollah’s promised response seems to have largely been overcome, Israel must continue to wait for another threat: Iran’s sworn “revenge” for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, for which Israel was blamed.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, said: “What happened today is not the end.”

Hezbollah chief: “We will wait and see if there will be further attacks”

Following the attacks in Beirut and Tehran late last month, Western and Israeli intelligence agencies, diplomats and analysts tried to figure out what the retaliatory measures announced by Iran and its most powerful non-state partner might look like.

That sparked shuttle diplomacy, with the US, UK and France urging Hezbollah and Iran to exercise restraint. This appeared to accelerate another round of talks on a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza to avert further escalation by the Iran-led axis, which has repeatedly conditioned a halt to its attacks on Israel and its allies on an end to the Israeli offensive in Gaza.

Talks to end the war remain slow despite intense diplomatic efforts by the United States, but the latest escalation has shown that neither Iran nor its allied non-state fighting groups in the region can stomach the prospect of a major war.

Hezbollah had repeatedly vowed to retaliate for any Israeli attack on Beirut with an attack on major urban centers in Israel. But whether intentional or because of Israel’s claims of pre-emptive strikes, that threat fell short. Its stated targets lie within the border area where hostilities have been taking place since October, and the Soviet-era short-range missiles it uses have been a mainstay of Hezbollah’s attacks on Israeli forces for decades.

The risk of open conflict appears to be significantly lower after Sunday’s crossfire. But the open-ended threat from Iran will continue to contribute to the war of nerves that has characterized much of the lower-intensity conflict between the Tehran-led axis and Israel. And the region will remain on a knife edge as long as the war in Gaza continues.

This article has been updated.