In a dramatic turn of events, more than a thousand protesters gathered outside the Indonesian parliament in Jakarta, and similar protests have broken out across the country. The outcry is against parliament’s attempt to rush through a law that would overturn a recent ruling by Indonesia’s Constitutional Court. That ruling, handed down just days ago, has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, removing a long-standing barrier that prevented smaller parties and independent candidates from running in gubernatorial elections.
With local and regional elections approaching in November this year, Indonesia’s top court has stepped into the spotlight by clarifying electoral rules mired in legal wrangling. The court’s decision lifted the requirement that parties secure 20% representation in regional assemblies before fielding candidates for gubernatorial elections. The move is expected to open the door to a more diverse range of candidates, breathing new life into the country’s electoral process.
The implications of this ruling are profound and shake the foundations of Indonesian politics. It effectively limits the dominance of established parties and entrenched political dynasties, while upending the coalition-building strategies that have long been the hallmark of Indonesian domestic politics. Historically, local and regional parties have tended to ally with larger, more powerful parties and avoided fielding their own candidates in favor of supporting those who had a better chance of winning. But the court’s latest decision threatens to break this established norm, potentially encouraging smaller parties to field candidates even when their chances of winning are slim.
Amid this political turmoil, incumbent President Joko Widodo is about to resign after being barred from serving a third term after two five-year terms. His Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a former army general, emerged victorious from the Parliamentary elections in February 2024and secured, together with his vice-presidential candidate, almost 60% of the vote. Gibran Rakabuming RakaWidodo’s eldest son.
The period leading up to the February 2024 elections has been full of controversy, reflecting the unrest of recent weeks. The previous amendment by the Constitutional Court allowed Gibran, the former mayor of Surakarta, to run as a presidential candidate despite being a minor. The court introduced a clause allowing candidates with five years of experience in regional leadership to bypass the age requirement, further fueling the controversy.
Subianto and Gibran ran under the banner of the Greater Indonesian Movement Party (Gerindra), despite Subianto’s role in Widodo’s cabinet. Their alliance, bolstered by the support of ten other political parties, attracted support from across the political spectrum. In particular, Gibran’s political background led him to switch from the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) – his father’s party – adding another layer of intrigue to the electoral dynamic.
With the inauguration of Subianto and Gibran in November, the country’s focus will turn to the upcoming regional elections, with particular attention being paid to Anies Baswedanthe former governor of Jakarta. Baswedan, who ran against Subianto in the 2024 presidential election, is running for governor of Jakarta again. His candidacy runs parallel to Widodo’s, as Widodo was also governor of Jakarta before becoming president. Baswedan’s independent candidacy in the 2024 election received 25% of the vote, and many speculate that a successful term as governor could earn him another presidential bid.
However, the Subianto-Gibran-Widodo coalition has worked tirelessly to exclude Baswedan from the election – a move that, if successful, would likely secure Subianto a second five-year term and pave the way for Gibran to the presidency. The now-repealed electoral rules had required candidates to receive the support of at least 20% of the regional parliament, a hurdle that, while not insurmountable in Indonesia’s complex landscape of political deals and coalition building, was a significant hurdle for Baswedan. The alliance of ten of Indonesia’s eleven regional parties with Subianto and Gibran effectively excluded Baswedan from the race.
In response to what many saw as an attempt by the political elite to consolidate their power, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court intervened and lifted those restrictions. This was widely seen as a necessary step to protect democracy. But Subianto’s Advanced Indonesia Coalition in parliament quickly responded by attempting to pass a law that would amend the constitution and bar Baswedan and other challengers from running. That law also likely aimed to formalize lower age limits for office, a change that would benefit Widodo’s younger son, Kaesang Pangarep, an entrepreneur and YouTuber who plans to run for mayor despite being a minor.
The parliamentary maneuvers, which some are calling a U-turn, were ultimately halted, possibly due to a lack of quorum. As protests against these undemocratic reforms grow across Indonesia, public outrage is increasingly directed at Widodo, with many accusing him of “destroying democracy” in the world’s third-largest democracy.
If Subianto’s coalition continues to try to change the rules in its favor, Indonesia could enter a full-blown constitutional crisis. The potential passage of this law would consolidate the ruling coalition’s power and accelerate the erosion of democratic norms in Indonesia.
The recent history of protests in Kenya And Bangladesh, where public pressure has forced significant policy changes, is at the center of it. The risks for Widodo and President-elect Subianto are considerable as they navigate these turbulent waters.
Blue posters reading “Emergency Alert” and featuring Indonesia’s symbolic national eagle have gone viral on social media, reflecting growing anti-coalition sentiment. Indonesians are increasingly concerned about the direction their country’s politics are heading, and many are wondering what the future of their democracy holds.
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