ABC News
(LEWISBURG, Pa.) — If elections are about “the economy, stupid,” then Ben McDuffee hasn’t had the confidence-building year that would make him feel good about keeping Democrats at the top of the ballot for four more years. And he’s a Democrat.
The Lewisburg, Pennsylvania, resident lost his job late last year. He worked in auto industry finance and was unemployed for three months. During that time, he applied for more than 200 jobs. In March, he took a job at a local credit union – and faced a $30,000 pay cut.
That drop in income, coupled with higher prices at the grocery store and a recent increase in monthly rent, meant a tightening budget. He and his wife put plans to buy a home for themselves and their 11-year-old son on hold as interest rates also rose.
“You know, the question voters ask themselves every four years is: Am I better off than I was four years ago? And if we use our card every week to buy groceries, we are certainly not better off than we were four years ago,” McDuffee said in an interview with ABC News at his home.
“So we have to weigh this up and ask ourselves: What do we think will happen to the country if we choose the other side?”
Judging by what he sees every day in his rural Pennsylvania town — a small piece of land in one of the country’s key swing states — dislike of “the other guy,” former President Donald Trump, may not be enough for Vice President Kamala Harris to overcome what she sees as a major burden: the economic situation.
That’s the reality of this election, and it’s especially true in his swing state: Despite a strong recovery from the global pandemic – including record-low unemployment, strengthening wage growth and continued robust consumer spending – the economy is still one of voters’ top concerns.
According to a poll by ABC News, Washington Post and Ipsos, more than 85 percent of adults say the economy and inflation are of the highest importance in their choice of president. These two issues are by far the most important. And voters trusted Trump on both issues by 9 percentage points more than Harris.
“There is a disconnect between the macroeconomic numbers that are being released and what people say about their feelings about the economy,” says Heidi Shierholz, president of the Economic Policy Institute and former chief economist at the Labor Department during the Obama administration.
A key reason this is such a big policy challenge, they say, is that people are more aware of high prices in their everyday lives than they are of national statistics or even their own pay rise.
“Despite the higher price level, people’s living standards are rising. So what’s happening now is exactly what we want to see,” Shierholz said. “But it’s still frustrating when you go to the supermarket or wherever and see these high prices. You don’t always think in the back of your mind, ‘Well, I also got this big pay raise, I can pay that and still get by.'”
Since the peak of the pandemic-related recession, overall consumer prices in the United States have risen 20%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while inflation-adjusted wages have also increased by about 25% on average.
This leads some people to feel worse off than they actually are. And for people like McDuffee, whose income has fallen or stagnated, the pressure from higher prices is especially great.
“I don’t doubt the numbers. But it all comes down to what you can do for your family with the money you have. And you don’t feel all those great numbers,” McDuffee said.
Harris knows she must change that perception to win over voters in crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, which could be the key to her presidential victory.
“Today, by virtually any measure, our economy is the strongest in the world,” Harris said at a recent campaign rally to discuss North Carolina’s economy, but she was also careful not to alienate voters who are not feeling that impact.
“We know that many Americans are not yet feeling this progress in their daily lives. The costs are still too high. And on a deeper level, it is so difficult for too many people to make any progress at all, no matter how hard they work,” Harris added.
To address this concern, Harris and President Joe Biden have launched a “cost-cutting” campaign that includes a series of measures aimed at reducing everyday prices for people.
Efforts include lowering the prices of drugs covered by Medicare so seniors pay less for their prescription drugs and passing rules requiring companies to disclose “junk fees” on products such as hotel rooms or concert tickets. The government has canceled student loans for nearly 4.8 million people.
McDuffee believes that these measures are not effective.
He says he will be reluctant to vote for Harris, but he knows that for many voters their bank accounts will be a priority in November.
“I think a lot of consumers are sensing that when they buy school uniforms at the gas pump or at the grocery store with their card, they realize that all of these things are more expensive than they were four years ago,” McDuffee said. “And I think that’s what resonates with them.”
Three hours southeast, however, Philadelphia City Councilwoman Katherine Gilmore Richardson says she is an example of why the Biden administration’s piecemeal policies work – and have exponentially changed her family’s economic trajectory.
“No hesitation. I am better off than I was four years ago. My family is better off because of the work of the Biden-Harris administration. And my children will be better off, if not more so, because of the Biden-Harris administration,” she said in an interview at her West Philadelphia home.
Richardson, who has worked for the city for over 20 years, had her student debt forgiven as part of a sweeping reform of the Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF) program, which allows for the forgiveness of remaining debts of individuals who have worked in public service for 10 years and paid off their loans.
She has now also helped her husband and her sister, who both work in the nonprofit sector and in social work, to get their debts forgiven.
Thanks to her family’s savings from paying off student loans, Richardson, a mother of three, was able to enroll her two youngest children in an individual reading camp this summer.
But Richardson knows that debt forgiveness is a unique reason to be excited about the economy. Of the 43 million Americans with student loan debt, about one in 10 have had their loans forgiven by the Biden-Harris administration so far.
“I hear from my constituents that they’re very concerned about the economy and whether they can afford quality housing, you know, cover food costs and provide for their families,” Richardson acknowledged.
Still, Richardson is a delegate to the Democratic National Convention and a big fan of both Biden and Harris. She believes their story reflects ongoing efforts to reduce fiscal burdens and is a reason to re-elect Democrats.
“I think we need to do a better job of telling that story and talking about the work they want to do,” she said.
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