GELFAND’S WORLD – I want to talk about the Democratic National Convention, a chilling remark from Nancy Pelosi, and a seemingly unrelated article about global warming. But they’re all connected. I promise.
Let’s start with a quote from Jeff Masters’ article in Yale Climate Connections titled “Will Climate Change Upend American Life?” You can find it here.
I would also like to point out that this article is long, but I think we can summarize the essence in a short paragraph:
Global warming is real, it is here, and we are in for a long period that is largely unpredictable at the moment. We are already seeing the effects in the form of skyrocketing home insurance costs and in the observed increase in the severity of storms. Depending on how bad carbon dioxide accumulation continues, the consequences will range from just horrific to almost unimaginable.
Next, we have the comment that Nancy Pelosi made a few nights ago here in Los Angeles. She mentioned that current Republicans in Congress have come to reject science. She talked about many other things, but this one comment was truly chilling, at least to this scientifically trained listener. Whether the objection to science is heartfelt or just opportunistic, it gives Republicans the excuse to ignore issues like global warming in order to curry favor with Donald Trump and their industry supporters.
Some of us here at CityWatch have repeatedly pointed out that we have lost three or four decades in the fight against global warming and we cannot afford to lose another one.
The Democratic Party Convention, stirring speeches and a movement for the everyday
There is a connection here. (Be patient.)
I didn’t watch the entire convention, but I caught some of the highlights. The best speech I’ve seen so far was Oprah Winfrey’s. You can watch it here. Barack Obama was cooler and a bit more intellectual, but (as usual) made some excellent points.
Everyone was eagerly waiting to see how Tim Walz would do, as this was his first real appearance on the international stage. I think everyone (including Republicans) would conclude that Walz is a compelling speaker who brought some compelling words to the discussion. I don’t know if I would describe the Republican approach as “weird,” but in practice it resonates well with voters. My personal favorite Walz contribution is “Mind your own damn business.” It would not have been appropriate during the civil rights movement, but it fits perfectly with the current reproductive freedom movement.
It’s curious that Walz and Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance are quite similar on paper. Both are college graduates from the Midwest and military veterans — Vance even had combat experience — and both were successful in their chosen careers, which included business or education and then politics. Aside from the presidency, senator and governor are pretty much the highest you can achieve in our political system.
So why this difference in public perception between the two? Walz has become instant celebrity, while Vance has become something of a joke. Polls show him doing worse than Sarah Palin did at a comparable point in the campaign. When I watch Vance answer questions, I personally don’t find him all that weird. He answered questions about his “cat lady” remark in an acceptable way and even tried to make a joke. No – it’s his political views that are so weird, and I suspect the public actually reacts to his political positions and not his personality. Yes, he’s creepy, but because of the content of his statements, not his hairstyle.
Yes, the everyday
Some of us remember how Donald Trump liked to surprise us as president. He started a trade war with China, did his best to destroy the North Atlantic alliance, and basically behaved like the rude bully he is at overseas conferences. He also ingratiated himself with the world’s worst dictators and (to quote Obama’s speech) he is obsessed with crowd sizes.
Trump has, above all, created a certain degree of uncertainty in everything he does. He just doesn’t seem to have a second gear in his machine.
The 2020 presidential election was all about a return to normalcy, about trying to bring back the monotony. And Biden succeeded. If you think about it, he did some radical things. One truly radical act he committed was announcing to the world that our intelligence sources had predicted the impending Russian invasion of Ukraine. Less radical, but diametrically opposed to Trump’s approach, was mobilizing NATO allies and sending military aid to Ukraine in its moment of greatest danger. He also led the drafting of legislation that gave the economy the boost it needed in our post-Covid economic crisis.
But all this was done with a rather quiet efficiency. He showed persistence and a willingness to push boundaries, but not in the theatrical way of his predecessor.
Monotonous.
Despite Harris’ smile and the choice of “Joy” as a campaign slogan, this newly formed Democratic campaign promises to stick to the same monotony. Given the political and ethnic diversity of the coalition it must form to win, how could it be otherwise? There are a few common themes, the most important being the long-overdue enforcement of women’s rights and the second the need for reforms in the medical and pharmaceutical sectors. But these are continuations of movements that have been going on all our lives. We can hope for a calm, methodical efficiency in developing these themes if it succeeds in establishing this huge blue wave at the polls.
(It all comes down to a few Senate races in states like Montana and Ohio. But that’s another story.)
The circle closes
We have started to discuss global warming. It is beginning to manifest itself as a real crisis, both in economic terms and in terms of human life. On a continental scale, climate change threatens to lead to mass extinctions.
When serious people talk about global warming, the word “existential” is increasingly used.
The paper cited above concludes that global warming will increase throughout our lifetimes, but could come under control by the start of the next century. But that depends on the world doing some serious things over time. Our final move away from burning fossil fuels is one of the most important actions, but we also seem to be making progress in transitioning to a solar economy.
But it all depends on a political system that takes the problem seriously. During this convention, it became clear that the Democrats’ policy is to take the problem seriously. We already know that the Republicans’ policy is the opposite. Donald Trump has repeatedly denied the scientific evidence on global warming, even though it is irrefutable. For some reason, acknowledging global warming poses a threat to the interests of the coal and oil industries, and that is apparently all Trump needs to maintain his denial. The election in November is therefore an existential decision.
(Bob Gelfand writes about science, culture and politics for CityWatch. You can reach him at (email protected).)
