The remnants of Tropical Storm Jongdari, currently moving off the Korean Peninsula, are joining a storm system there. You can track its remnants in the models as it moves across the northern Pacific Ocean over the weekend and then joins another low in the Gulf of Alaska.
What follows is the large low that will move through Canada next week. It doesn’t look too imposing in the model forecasts. But if you look at the ridges on the same graphics, you can see that they are moving quite a bit. The low will mean big changes in the weather pattern over the US next week, probably as a result of a large storm. Maps of this upper air imagery can be found for free here: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/…
Next week, watch for the “lack of color” moving over Canada and how the red ridges over the US and Canada appear to be disappearing. The likely reason for the lack of blue coloration or signs of the trough is the uncertainties regarding the timing of when Jongdari will be wrapped up in the trough. The European model shows this a little better than the GEFS I linked above, but those images are not available for free.
Regardless, the tropical phenomenon is important here because the extra energy could bring a larger storm system and a bigger change in the weather we feel at the surface, not just the pattern in the upper atmosphere. That’s because ahead of this low pressure system and storm, a ridge will spread from its current position in the Rocky Mountains across the entire eastern half of the U.S. and Canada. Heat will return to the Midwest this weekend and stay there until the ridge is forced to retreat. The low pressure system that comes through next week will likely be the force that moves it.
The result is likely to be a strong storm system bringing widespread rain and possibly severe weather, followed by a burst of cooler air. The timing will likely be between August 28 and 30 across the Corn Belt, with the cooler air moving in a day later.
The details are still being worked out, and the models may not account well for the remnants of Jongdari, so changes in the forecast are likely. But I would be surprised if the storm and cold snap didn’t materialize next week.
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John Baranick can be reached at [email protected]
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