Three questions for the Phillies as they try to beat the Braves and win the NL East

ATLANTA – Seven games in 13 days against the Braves are the perfect chance for the Phillies to spend a drama-free September at the top of the National League East.

Not that there is much tension at the moment.

To chase another front-runner, as they did with the Mets in 2022, and win their seventh straight division title, the Braves had to open a door not yet open by the Phillies’ recent 8-18 loss. Instead, they stumbled to a 12-15 record during that four-week stretch, taking just 3½ games in the standings and never being able to cut the division lead to fewer than five games.

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Heading into Tuesday night’s series opener in Atlanta, the spread was seven games with 38 left to play, prompting bookmakers at FanGraphs to give the Phillies an 88.3% chance of winning the division for the first time since 2011. Baseball Prospectus was even more optimistic, putting the odds at 92.6%.

And when the Braves learned on Monday that star third baseman Austin Riley will be out for at least six weeks with a hand fracture, their pursuit of the Phillies seemed even more Sisyphean. They’ve already lost ace Spencer Strider and reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. for the season after undergoing elbow and knee surgery, respectively. Now Riley is on the bench alongside second baseman Ozzie Albies (broken wrist) and reliever AJ Minter (hip).

But as the Phillies try to defeat what’s left of the Braves — and they’ve lined up Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and probably Cristopher Sánchez for three starts this week at Truist Park — they’ll have to ask themselves other questions over the next two weeks. Among them:

How much is a bye in the first round worth?

Forget the Braves. The Phillies’ most important race is against the other division leaders, because the top two teams receive a first-round bye, meaning they have five days off after the regular-season finale and aren’t subject to the gamble of a best-of-three series against a team that likely had to fight hard for its wild-card spot.

That’s not nothing.

But it doesn’t guarantee much either.

In the last three postseasons, only four of the 12 teams that received a first-round bye made it through the best-of-five divisional round. Maybe they were rusty. Maybe they were outplayed. In most cases, it was a combination of factors. And while every team in the NLCS would choose home-field advantage, Citizens Bank Park couldn’t save the Phillies in Games 6 and 7 last October.

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Through Tuesday, the Phillies (73-51) were a half-game ahead of the Dodgers (74-52) and a game ahead of the Brewers (72-52). They have a tiebreaker against Los Angeles thanks to winning the season series; they swept the Brewers in June and play three games in Milwaukee next month. (Mark the dates: Sept. 16-18.)

For Phillies manager Rob Thomson, rest is a priority right now to optimize his health, which explains why he insisted on giving Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto full days off on Sunday rather than using them as pinch hitters when they were down two runs in the ninth inning.

“I think long-term,” Thomson told reporters.

If the race remains this close, it may become even more urgent to go full throttle and put your foot on the pedal in the decisive game.

Will the center of rotation move up?

In general, the Phillies know what to expect from Wheeler and Nola down the stretch and in October. At the very least, they’ll be reliably solid; at best, they’ll dominate. But they’re as durable as you can expect as a starting pitcher in 2024.

Sánchez and Ranger Suárez are still wild cards.

Besides, it is the left-handers who make the difference.

Consider this: During one of the Phillies’ best 26-game stretches – a 21-5 streak from April 27 to May 25 – Suárez posted a 2.08 ERA in six starts, while Sánchez posted a 3.30 ERA in five. During the 8-18 slump from July 12 to August 13, Suárez started just twice, posting a 5.56 ERA, while Sánchez had a 6.11 ERA in five starts.

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In a broader context, the Phillies’ fate depends on the starting lineup. Until July 11, when the Phillies were the best team in baseball, the starters led the majors with a 3.17 ERA, with Suárez leading the league in ERA for most of that time. Since then, they have a cumulative ERA of 4.44, with Suárez sidelined by back soreness.

Unlike last postseason, when an off day between Games 1 and 2 of the NL Division Series allowed the Phillies to get by with just three starters until the middle of the NLCS, this year they will need four starters in the Divisional Round.

Suárez, scheduled to return this weekend in Kansas City, has started just once since the All-Star break, partly because of his back but also in a calculated move to give more rest to a starter who hasn’t pitched more than 155 innings in a season. Sánchez allayed concerns about his fatigue with a 99-pitch complete game on Saturday night. But the Phillies will find opportunities to give him a breather down the stretch.

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“Hopefully they’ve gotten through some kind of fatigue crisis, but we need to keep them there,” Thomson said. “We need to keep a close eye on them so we don’t put them at risk, so they don’t get overly fatigued again, so they get through this month and September in good shape.”

Thomson was referring to all the regular players, but this applies especially to Suárez and Sánchez.

What is the best outfield formation?

When the Phillies signed Austin Hays before the July 30 deadline, they intended to give him most of his playing time in left field to test his ability to hit both right- and left-handed hitters. He batted 10-for-38 (.263) with three extra-base hits and an OPS of .677 in 10 games, but then suffered a hamstring strain and landed on the injured list.

It’s unclear how the at-bats will be distributed upon his return, likely Friday in Kansas City.

If Hays’ offense outweighs center fielder Johan Rojas’ defense, the Phillies will opt for Hays on a daily basis in left field and a Rojas-Brandon Marsh platoon in center. Otherwise, Rojas could spend most of his time in center while Hays and Marsh share at-bats in left field.

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(Rojas, whatever that means, has been 8-for-27 with a .715 OPS and just six strikeouts since Hays’ injury — and has reached base in seven of eight starts.)

The Phillies will go as far as their core players and stars will take them, but the outfield lineup will prove to be a sideshow in the home stretch.