In the age of the expanded College Football Playoffs, winning your conference is very important.
The top four conference champions receive a bye into the second round of the 12-team postseason. With only four power conferences remaining after the Pac-12 ends, a conference title is practically guaranteed after just one week.
With the 2024 season fast approaching, here’s a look at the Big Ten. Ohio State is under a lot of pressure to start the season and has some teams that could be hot on its heels.
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State of Ohio (+150)
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Oregon (+200)
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Penn State (+500)
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Michigan (+600)
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USC (+2200)
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Iowa (+4000)
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Washington (+5000)
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Nebraska (+5000)
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Wisconsin (+8000)
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Rutgers (+10000)
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Maryland (+12500)
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State of Michigan (+12500)
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Northwest (+15000)
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Illinois (+15000)
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UCLA (+20000)
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Minnesota (+20000)
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Pittsburgh (+20000)
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Indianapolis (+20000)
A decisive season for Ohio State
The last three years have been building toward the 2024 season for the preseason favorites. A third straight loss to Michigan caused Ohio State to miss the College Football Playoff last year. QB Kyle McCord transferred in December and Devin Brown was injured in the Cotton Bowl loss to Missouri.
Former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard joins the quarterback lineup for his final season. He should also provide a running threat that Ohio State didn’t have with McCord as the starter. With the arrival of former Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins, the running back lineup could have the best one-two combination in college football. He rushed for over 1,000 yards in each of his two seasons at Ole Miss and will partner with TreVeyon Henderson. Emeka Egbuka is back to lead the receiver lineup and take care of five-star freshman Jeremiah Smith.
The defense is also well positioned. Edge rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau have returned to the offense and the secondary brings back defensive back Denzel Burke. Star safety Caleb Downs comes from Alabama and should step into the starting lineup immediately.
In short, the conditions and expectations for a national title season are there. If Ohio State doesn’t finish in the top six of the playoffs and at least make it to the semifinals, 2024 could well be a disappointment.
The Buckeyes, however, have some serious challengers in the Big Ten. Oregon could be just as good as it was last season, with Dillon Gabriel coming in from Oklahoma to replace Bo Nix. The offense also signed former Texas A&M wide receiver Evan Stewart and the secondary has been bolstered by a number of transfers. How quickly they come together could be the key to Oregon’s chances at the Big Ten title. The game of the year in the conference (aside from Michigan vs. Ohio State) could be the Buckeyes’ visit to the Ducks on October 12.
Penn State has serious playoff hopes after two consecutive 10-win seasons. Drew Allar returns for his third season at quarterback and the duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are every bit as good as Ohio State’s running backs. The defense returns four of its top five tacklers and the secondary has added two SEC transfers in AJ Harris (Georgia) and Jalen Kimber (Florida).
It may sound simplistic, but Allar’s performance against top teams in 2024 will put Penn State over the top. In the Nittany Lions’ three losses last season, he failed to complete 50% of his passes.
The reigning national champions are looking to regroup and reposition themselves for another title run in 2023 after a 15-0 season. Offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore is taking over as head coach from Jim Harbaugh, and Michigan had the most players of any school in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The defense still has plenty of talent along the line and in the secondary. Getting S Rod Moore back after he misses all of 2023 will be crucial.
The biggest questions are on offense, where almost all of the key players are missing. Donovan Edwards will take over the lead back role after a 2023 that wasn’t very good until the end of the season. Alex Orji is expected to start at QB after seeing limited playing time in special packages in 2023.
The offensive line will also have to replace four starters, but the identity of the unit should largely be the same as last season. Expect a lot of power running, complemented by a passing game. We’ll have an idea of how good Michigan is in Week 2 when Texas comes to visit.
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Who stands out from the midfield?
It seems like there is a clear top four in the conference. Who will be the best of the rest?
Iowa is a serious dark horse to make the Big Ten title game. The Hawkeyes’ defense should be stellar again — it’s now an annual tradition for Iowa to allow fewer than 20 points per game. The biggest question is the offense, but there’s reason to believe Iowa will be better with a coordinator change and some injury luck.
Former Western Michigan coach Tim Lester takes over as offensive coordinator for Brian Ferentz, and former Michigan QB Cade McNamara should be fully healthy. McNamara suffered a season-ending knee injury in his first season as the Hawkeyes’ starter. TE Luke Lachey should also return from a knee injury sustained in early 2023, and running backs Leshon Williams and Kaleb Williams are both back. A merely average passing game will open up the offense to the running game.
USC has a new defensive coordinator in D’Anton Lynn as it looks to field a solid defense that doesn’t rely solely on turnovers for the first time in Lincoln Riley’s tenure. The Trojans were torn apart in 2023 and the offensive line has struggled as well. That’s not a recipe for success, even with Caleb Williams at quarterback. Miller Moss is the favorite to replace Williams over former UNLV QB Jayden Maiava.
The Trojans’ schedule is not exactly advantageous this season, however. USC plays LSU first and then visits Michigan in Week 4. Penn State, Washington and Notre Dame are also in the game.
Teams with better chances than their odds suggest
You can do a lot worse than Rutgers as an underdog futures bet this season. Seriously. The Scarlet Knights return a lot of talent from a team that was 7-6 last season. RB Kyle Monangai rushed for 1,262 yards last season and linebacker Mohamed Toure is one of the best in the conference.
After years of playing in the Big Ten East with Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State, Rutgers doesn’t have any of those teams on the schedule this season. And Iowa isn’t there either. The Scarlet Knights’ toughest game could be a trip to USC in October. Rutgers may not play the most exciting football, but it could improve on its winning record from last season.
Indiana is also an interesting team, despite its chances of finishing at the bottom of the standings. After parting ways with Tom Allen, now Penn State’s defensive coordinator, the Hoosiers hired coach Curt Cignetti from James Madison. As a head coach, he has never had a losing season.
Indiana also signed former Ohio State quarterback Kurtis Rourke through the transfer portal. He didn’t have a great year in 2023 after injuring his knee at the end of the 2022 season. But he was excellent before the injury. When Rourke is fully healthy, he will be one of the better QBs in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers do have both Ohio State and Michigan on their schedule, but not until November. Because of its early schedule, Indiana could be bowl eligible in October.
