The Republican vice presidential candidate rejects polls that show Republicans have lost ground in the election. He must know that Trump lives off these polls.
Vance denounces illegal immigration at campaign rally
Vice presidential candidate JD Vance made a campaign stop in Philadelphia to highlight the issue of border policy.
Fox – 5 Atlanta
PHILADELPHIA — JD Vance, the Republican senator from Ohio who was nominated as former President Donald Trump’s running mate five weeks ago, arrived in this overwhelmingly Democratic city on Monday with a difficult task.
Trump’s lead in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania has melted over the past month, while Vice President Kamala Harris’s fledgling presidential campaign has seen a sentiment-led boost in polls, donations and momentum.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, will likely enjoy the political pomp and circumstance of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this week.
Vance sought to destroy the Democratic mood by portraying Harris as a threat to the American economy in a speech to a small group of supporters at the warehouse of a medical waste disposal company.
How would he undo the troubling impression he had left by losing the lead in Pennsylvania?
Vance’s answer: Just don’t believe the polls.
JD Vance visits Pennsylvania as Trump falls behind in the polls
The numbers add up, even if Vance ignores them. According to an average of polls compiled by RealClearPolitics, Harris and Trump are currently tied in Pennsylvania.
On July 21, the day President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy for a second term and named Harris as his successor, Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania was 4.5 percentage points.
I asked Vance if he believed the poll results and, if so, how he and Trump would close the gap.
Will your vote count? Trump supporters are already working against the outcome of the 2024 election.
“I don’t believe the polls when they say we’re up,” Vance told me. “I don’t believe the polls that say we’re tied. I don’t believe the polls that say we’re down.”
That’s all? Vance’s approach to analyzing data that helps frame a policy challenge is to simply look the other way. He’s going to need a villain to pull this off. And of course he’s found one.
“I think the media is releasing these polls knowing that it will reduce voter turnout and shift the discussion to the polls,” Vance said.Who cares what the polls saywhether they say we are up or we are down?”
Donald Trump is obsessed with polls
I can answer that question. It’s important to Trump. It’s so important to him that he’s constantly worried about how big the crowds are when you compare his rallies to Harris’s – and he’s always wondering if his televised speeches are getting the best ratings.
How do we know? Because Trump liked to post about the polls in Pennsylvania when things were going in his favor, before the entire election outcome changed on a Sunday in July.
In May, Trump posted an article about an AARP poll that showed him “pulling away from Biden” in Pennsylvania. In June, he posted an article about a Washington Post poll that found voters in Pennsylvania and other swing states trusted him more than Biden.
Blame Trump and MAGA. Republicans, are you still confused about Harris’ dynamic?
Last week, during an incoherent chatter disguised as a press conference, Trump insisted: “We are leading in the polls. In most cases, we are leading in the polls. We were way ahead of Biden. We are ahead now. But I think if she gets exposed, we will beat her by a lot more than we would have beaten Biden.”
Presidential elections are won in swing states like Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. But national polls give a sense of the electorate. Trump is not “ahead” in the polls. Monday’s national RealClearPolitics poll average showed Harris leading Trump by 1.5 percentage points.
It’s very thin. But it’s a clue. For her. Not for him.
Trump’s stay in Pennsylvania was characterized by more political style
Trump had his own difficult assignment on Monday in York, Pennsylvania, where he visited another industrial facility to deliver, as his campaign put it, “remarks on the economy.” It was yet another chatterfest, a rehashed bunch of old platitudes about “communists” and “Marxists” and “drill, baby, drill” and so on and so forth.
Trump criticized Harris for her change of position on fracking, the practice of extracting natural gas in places like Pennsylvania. During her 2020 presidential campaign, Harris proposed banning the practice, which has a significant impact on the state’s economy and environment.
That’s fair, isn’t it? She changed her position. That should be part of the conversation in this election campaign. But Trump, being Trump, has to overuse that hand.
“Kamala is also waging a regulatory jihad to shut down power plants across America,” Trump said in York, using the kind of emotional rhetoric he uses when he feels he is losing control of the race.
Pennsylvania will be a focus of polls for the rest of this election
Chicago and the Democratic Party Convention are currently the center of the electoral universe, but Pennsylvania is so clearly in play that Trump and Harris’ campaign teams had to make several stops here from Saturday to Monday.
Harris and Walz took advantage of a bus tour of Western Pennsylvania, where she told her supporters, “The vast majority of us have so much more in common than what divides us.”
Trump held another rally in Wilkes-Barre, where he put a strange new twist on his usual campaign speech by claiming he looks “way better” than Harris.
By Election Day on November 5, we’ll probably all be sick of the term “vibe.” (It’s entirely possible we’ve already reached that point.) Still, it’s worth noting the very different moods emanating from the presidential campaigns.
Harris runs a cheerful, energetic road show and tries to build unity. Trump, on the other hand, is a prophet of impending doom, fixated on division.
There are 11 weeks until the election. If both camps stick to this message, the polls will continue to swing in the wrong direction for Trump. And simply not believing the data will not save his campaign.
Follow USA TODAY election columnist Chris Brennan on X, formerly known as Twitter: @ByChrisBrennan
