Joe Biden failed in three of his four presidential bids. Donald Trump is on track to suffer his second defeat in three attempts.
Biden escaped Harold Stassen’s legacy as a perpetual loser only because the Democratic Party elite feared Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) as their candidate in 2020 and the American people’s antipathy toward Trump was slightly greater that same year than toward Biden.
This year, despite the mental and physical limitations that age often brings, both men refused to step aside and make way for younger blood until Biden was finally forced to resign by party leadership last month. Trump is still hanging on despite an assassination attempt, popular discontent with his convention speech and the election of JD Vance, and an increasingly incoherent and faltering campaign.
The falling poll numbers nationally and in the few swing states are a harbinger of a decisive defeat for Trump and a potentially violent reaction from his loyal supporters. Trump should, for once, show generosity and genuine patriotism while avoiding humiliation. He should resign and ask the Republican National Committee to organize a short, virtual campaign to choose a new candidate who can match what the Democrats did impressively after Biden’s withdrawal.
A victory for Harris and Walz would be an ironic turn of events from the Democrats’ decision in 2020 to rally behind Biden as an antidote to a looming Sanders nomination. His explicit campaign platform of “democratic socialism” was seen as a path to certain defeat. Now Harris, the fervent progressive whom Biden nominated as vice president to appease the left wing of the Democratic Party, is poised to win the presidency by watering down or even reversing many of her past positions, at least to win the election. Democrats and the nation could end up with the Sanders brand of socialism they rejected in 2020.
Trump said in the June debate that he only decided to run in 2024 because Biden is seeking a second term and “he’s destroying our country.” With that rationale now gone, Trump is free to let his party choose another candidate and allow him to retire in one of his “beautiful places.” Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Mike Pence, Robert O’Brien, Condoleeza Rice and other highly qualified Republicans could step in and change the dynamic again in 2024.
If Trump decides to remain the Republican nominee and continue his campaign on the current course, Republican pollster Frank Luntz called it “political suicide.” Not only would it give Democrats back the White House, it would likely destroy Republicans’ chances of winning a seat in the House and retaking the Senate, while also hurting their prospects in state elections.
Given the likelihood that Trump will refuse to put the interests of the nation and the Republican Party above his own perceived self-interest, preparations should be made for a nationwide write-in campaign, provided a single Republican is willing to file the necessary paperwork in the 31 states that require it for such votes to be counted and reported. In nine other states, this filing requirement is not required for write-in votes to be counted, and in 10 states, write-in votes are not permitted at all.
Trump supporters and some loyal Republicans will argue that a write-in campaign is doomed to failure and will only siphon votes off Trump. But a “suicidal” Trump campaign is already doomed to failure, and a write-in option will maintain voter interest and help Republican candidates in the election. Even if a write-in candidate does not receive the 270 votes needed to win, he or she could help prevent Trump or Harris from winning the election and allow the House to choose the president. In a Trump-Harris election, Republicans and independents may well consider a write-in option: What do you have to lose?
Joseph Bosco served as China Country Desk Officer in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, nonresident senior associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States. He is currently a member of the Advisory Board of the Global Taiwan Institute and a Fellow of the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS).
Image: Sir. David / Shutterstock.com.
