There is widespread agreement that expected goals are the best way to measure the performance of Premier League clubs in a given match.
To get a better overview of the teams’ performance, you can use the Expected Goals (xG) metric to get a more accurate picture of the teams’ performance.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic that determines how many goals should be scored in a game.
For each individual shot, an xG value is assigned based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors such as distance to the goal, type of shot and number of defenders present influencing the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely it is that that shot will result in a goal.
The xG value of each shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular game.
Instead of just using the usual basic statistics of the number of shots on goal by each team, expected goals also take into account shot positions, chance situations, whether defenders were in the way, etc.
These are Saturday’s Premier League matches, with Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final score in brackets) via Understat:
Ipswich 0.34 – Liverpool 3.93 (0:2)
Arsenal 1.63 – Wolves 0.58 (2-0)
Everton 0.41 – Brighton 1.79 (0:3)
Newcastle United 0.43 – Southampton 1.95 (1-0)
Forest 1.24 – Bournemouth 1.91 (1:1)
West Ham 2.80 vs Villa 2.67 (1-2)
As you can see, there is an interesting set of results on Saturday, even if the focus is on the expected goals statistics.
We all know that the game against Newcastle United had a special element. A total of 101 minutes were played, but 73 of them saw NUFC play with a man less. Schar was sent off in the 28th minute after Ben Brereton Diaz’s embarrassing cheating.
Because of this red card, Eddie Howe had to focus on keeping the situation as tight as possible and rely on bringing as many players forward as possible on the counterattack.
Before the red card in the 28th minute, there were few goal-scoring opportunities and virtually no real chances for either side, apart from a shocking header from Ben Brereton Diaz that went wide from just 7.5 metres from goal. The majority of the expected goals statistic therefore comes from the action after the sending off, i.e. from the 73 minutes in which Newcastle only had one man on the field.
Nevertheless, the expected goals statistics for Newcastle United were 0.43 and for Southampton 1.95.
NUFC’s low stats are certainly self-explanatory, especially after Joelinton struck 17 minutes after Schar was sent off to score Newcastle’s (winning) goal. Newcastle United are now predictably trying even harder to pull back and make sure they give the Saints as few clear chances as possible to defend that one-goal lead.
The fact that Southampton only managed 1.95 in the expected goals statistic is quite remarkable and a testament to what an excellent performance the nine Newcastle United players put in in front of Nick Pope. An expected goals statistic of 1.95 is very average and as you can see, teams like West Ham (2.80), Villa (2.67) and Liverpool (3.93) created far more and better chances against 11 men.
Nick Pope was a real vote of confidence for his teammates, but ultimately faced just five shots on goal and most of them he easily saved. The only notable thing for the United keeper was one from Armstrong, which he saved superbly.
Newcastle 1 Southampton 0 – Saturday, August 17, 15:00
Red card for Schar 28, Joelinton 45
(Half-time statistics in brackets)
possession was Newcastle 22% (27%) Southampton 78% (73%)
Total number of shots were Newcastle 3 (3) Southampton 19 (4)
Shots on goal were Newcastle 1 (1) Southampton 5 (1)
Corners were Newcastle 3 (3) Southampton 12 (1)
Ball contacts in the penalty area Newcastle 16 (11) Southampton 48 (8)
Pope, Livramento, Schar (Krafth 28), Burn, Hall (Kelly 70), Longstaff, Bruno, Joelinton; J Murphy (Krafth 30), Isak, Gordon (Barnes 70)
Dubravka, Trippier, Targett, Osula, Almiron, Willock
(Newcastle 1 – Southampton 0 – An absolutely brilliant performance and a win for Newcastle United with ten men – Read it HERE)
(Newcastle 1 Southampton 0 – Instant reaction from a Newcastle United fan/writer – Read it HERE)
Newcastle United’s schedule until the end of October 2024:
Sunday, 25 August 2024 – Bournemouth vs Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports
Week commencing Monday, August 26, 2024 – Matches of the second round of the Carabao Cup will be played
Friday, August 30, 2024 – The summer transfer window closes at 23:00.
Sunday, September 1, 2024 – Newcastle vs Tottenham (1.30pm) Sky Sports
(First international break of the season)
Sunday, September 15, 2024 – Wolves vs Newcastle (4.30pm), Sky Sports
Weeks commencing Monday 16 September and Monday 23 September – Carabao Cup, Third Round (This round is split over two weeks)
Saturday, 21 September 2024 – Fulham – Newcastle (3 p.m.)
Weeks commencing Monday 16 September and Monday 23 September – Carabao Cup, Third Round (This round is split over two weeks)
Saturday, September 28, 2024 – Newcastle vs Man City (12.30pm) TNT Sports
Saturday, October 5 – Everton vs Newcastle (5pm), Sky Sports
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