For two weeks, Hezbollah has been threatening to escalate the war against Israel, joining forces with Iran in the hope of paving the way for a possible escalation against Israel. However, Hezbollah has learned that threatening to escalate against Israel can be just as good as escalation itself, because it creates a sense of alert in Israel, and Hezbollah has nothing to lose or capital to do so.
In Lebanon, there are concerns about economic crises. The country is on the brink of crisis and its electricity grid and health sector are already overstretched. This means that if Hezbollah drags Lebanon into a major war, it could cause serious damage to the parts of the country that are not sympathetic to Hezbollah and could cause Hezbollah to lose influence and power in Beirut. Hezbollah and Iran share the same reasoning here. Both Hezbollah and Iran have benefited over the past decade. They have used the war against ISIS to gain new influence in the region and they have even benefited from US sanctions, or so they claim in their own media.
7,500 Hezbollah rockets already fired
Hezbollah has reportedly already fired 7,500 rockets at Israel and launched 200 drones. In recent days, it has expanded the range and sectors of its attacks to threaten Shamir and Ayelet HaShachar in Israel, two communities it had not attacked in the past. So Hezbollah is escalating without sparking a major war.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah officials say it reserves the right to launch a major attack on Israel. It says this is independent of its support for Gaza. It essentially argues that it has a score to settle with Israel and can choose the time and place to escalate into a major war. Pro-Iranian media openly boast about how this keeps Israel on alert, reporting drone threats and other incidents.
The recent Hezbollah video from the Imad 4 tunnel complex was part of this psychological war. Understanding how Hezbollah has been waging this psychosocial war since late July is important to understanding how it plans to escalate gradually without risking a larger war. This is Hezbollah’s policy at the moment. The group wants to keep its forces largely intact and knows that Israel also fears a larger war. Therefore, it believes it is on the winning side as long as it can slowly increase the threats and not receive a stronger response from Israel.
