And now even Donald Trump’s most favorable – and reputable – poll numbers have turned against him, as Democratic candidate Kamala Harris continues to gain popularity and threatens to steamroll the struggling former president.
The New York Times-Siena College poll, which for months has been publishing results that reinforce Trump’s bias like no other trustworthy poll, has now clearly developed to the disadvantage of the Republican candidate.
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In poll results released Saturday morning, the Times reported that its latest survey found:
Vice President Kamala Harris has plunged into the races in the fast-growing and diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, shortly after Donald J. Trump was on the verge of with these states when President Biden was still the Democratic candidate.
The new polls from the New York Times and Siena College show how quickly Ms. Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and put the Sun Belt back at the center of the swing states map.
Mrs Harris is now ahead of Mr Trump under likely voters In Arizona, he is at 50 to 45 percent, and in North Carolina – a state Trump won four years ago – he has even narrowly conceded defeat to Trump, while in Georgia and Nevada he has significantly reduced his lead.
In the four Sun Belt states, Trump and Harris are tied at an average of 48 percent in polls from August 8 to 15.
Times poll analyst Nate Cohn said this was bad news for Trump.
“I wouldn’t get too caught up in the exact results in each state,” Cohn wrote. “Taken individually, the polls in each state are relatively imprecise and subject to a lot of uncertainty. Instead, focus on the bigger picture: It’s neck-and-neck in all four states. And neck-and-neck in those four states is not good news for Mr. Trump, who may need to win all three – Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona – to win in November.”
Cohen added that Harris has won back many of the black voters who defected to Trump in previous polls, while she also has “a clear lead among young and Hispanic voters.”
These results come shortly after partisan Republican pollster Frank Luntz warned that he could not believe what he was seeing in his focus groups and polls.
“It’s bringing out people who don’t want to vote for Trump or Biden. It’s changed the entire voting pool. And if it continues like this, you have to expect the Democrats to win the Senate and the House of Representatives,” Luntz said on CNBC on Wednesday.
“She has intensity now. She has an intensity advantage. She has a demographic advantage and I’ve never seen anything like this happen in 30 days in my life,” he said. “Now my groups are being disbanded by young women saying, ‘I’m not voting for him anymore.'”
He added: “The undecideds have all joined Harris. The ‘weak’ Trump supporters have all joined the undecideds.”
According to Luntz, polls show that the Democrats have a good chance of winning the White House, the Senate and the House of Representatives by a landslide.
In addition, betting markets are heavily tilted toward Harris, who is now the favorite to win in November with odds of 54 percent to 44 percent, according to Polymarket. That’s a stark contrast to the day before Biden dropped out of the race, when Trump’s odds of winning were 64 percent to Biden’s 7 percent.
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