But as we approach the final months of the season, Rublev can already boast a second Masters 1000 title – his first came in 2023 – as well as another appearance in a final at this level, having reached the showpiece in Montreal just last week.
Each of Rublev’s Masters successes this year has been the result of relatively poor form from the world number six. In Madrid, he ended an alarming four-match losing streak with a highly unexpected title win. In Montreal, another four-match losing streak was preceded by a mediocre start to the North American hard court tour before an impressive run to the final in Canada.
On the way to this final, Rublev defeated world number one Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals.
Now down in Cincinnati, where the second edition of the late-summer Masters tournaments is taking place, the Russian must again defeat the top-seeded Italian in the quarterfinals if he is to reach his third 1000-mile final of the season – something Rublev has never accomplished in his career.
“It’s always super tough to play against him,” Rublev told Tennis Channel about the match after his win over Brandon Nakashima in the round of 16.
“I want to rest well today, enjoy the day and enjoy the game tomorrow. I just want to try to compete like I did in Montreal and then we’ll see what happens.”
Suppressing the demons on the pitch is the key to Rublev’s recent success
To Rublev’s credit, he seems to have his aforementioned on-court outbursts of anger – which are mostly directed at himself rather than others – much more under control after yet another early exit at Wimbledon. He has spoken openly about his mental health issues and is clearly doing a good job behind the scenes to manage them – both on and off the court.
This calmer demeanor was a hallmark of his success in Montreal, a run that Rublev himself admits surprised him.
“All in all, it was a fantastic tournament for me. Nobody expected this, especially after so many months of problems in which I didn’t feel good and didn’t play well at all,” he explained.
“Reaching the final was a great gift for me and I feel great here too. I think the final helped me a lot to stay calmer in the important moments and to trust myself more.”
The unique conditions at the Cincinnati court pose a challenge for Rublev
Ahead of his second meeting with Sinner in as many weeks, Rublev will have to cope with the lightning-fast conditions of Cincinnati’s Centre Court.
Although a faster surface usually complements the Russian’s fast-paced, aggressive style of play, Rublev admits that he still finds the unusually high bounce of the courts difficult.
“We train, work hard, prepare our bodies, do different exercises and training sessions, and then you go to play and there are no rallies? Just one serve and one return? It’s like being in a casino. It’s fifty-fifty and it’s no fun,” was his frank conclusion.
“When you play long rallies, you think, you defend, you counterattack. These things make the game more special and more entertaining.
“It has more meaning because you can also see the things you work on off the field and now we are doing them here (on the field).”
After a rather turbulent season in which highs and lows seemed to cancel each other out, Rublev now has a unique opportunity to describe his mixed year as an overall positive one.
If he were to defeat the world number one on Sinner’s preferred hard courts for the second time in two weeks, the Russian’s entire season would look very different.
Apart from that, a second consecutive semi-final at a Masters 1000 is also a tempting prospect to motivate Rublev to get back to his best tennis.
It’s a big task, but it’s definitely doable – but only if the powerful Russian can cope with the unique speed and bounce of these courts in Cincinnati.
After all, a fifty-fifty bet against the leading male player of 2024 is not a safe bet.
