The earthquake that hit the south Japan on Thursday was not a big deal for the country, despite its magnitude of 7.1, as the quake caused only minimal damage. However, it was immediately followed by an important warning from the Japanese Meteorological Agency, which spoke of an increased risk of the first “mega earthquake”.
In response to this alarming announcement Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has decided to forgo his planned trip to a summit in Central Asia and instead stay in the country for the next week to “make sure our preparations and communications are in order,” the BBC reported.
What is that “Large“
Earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 8 are classified as megaquakes. Many Japanese had to deal with the dreaded “Great Quake” – a catastrophic earthquake that occurs once every hundred years and about which they had been warned.
In the worst case scenario, the death toll is estimated at over 300,000, and a massive tsunami of up to 30 meters in height could hit the Pacific coast of the East Asian country.
What concerns do the Japanese authorities currently have?
Japan, located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is no stranger to seismic activitywhere about 1,500 earthquakes occur every year. Most of these quakes cause only minimal damage, but there are also devastating exceptions, such as the 9.0 magnitude earthquake Earthquake in 2011 that triggered a tsunami that claimed over 18,000 lives on the northeast coast.
In 1707, a breach occurred that extended along the entire length of the Nankai Trough triggered Japan’s second largest earthquake on record, followed by the eruption of Mount Fuji. These massive “megathrust” earthquakes typically occur about every hundred years, often in pairs, with the most recent earthquakes occurring in 1944 and 1946.
Experts estimate that the probability that an earthquake measuring 8 or 9 on the Richter scale will occur somewhere along the valley floor within the next three decades is 70 to 80 percent.
According to the BBC, geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A. Hubbard called this long-awaited earthquake “the original definition of the ‘big one'” in their newsletter Earthquake Insights on Thursday. “The story of the big Nankai earthquakes is so convincingly frightening” that it is cause for concern, the two acknowledged.
What is the Nankai Trough?
The Nankai Trough off the southwestern Pacific coast of Japan is a major geological formation extending for about 900 km (600 miles). This trough was formed by the subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate.
The convergence of these two tectonic plates along the Nankai Trough leads to the accumulation of enormous tectonic stresses over time. These built-up stresses can trigger a devastating megaquake about every 100 to 150 years, Reuters reported.
Can earthquakes really be predicted?
Robert Geller, a professor emeritus of seismology at the University of Tokyo, rejects the idea that earthquakes can be accurately predicted. In a statement to the BBC, he said: “The warning issued yesterday has almost nothing to do with science.”
He explained that earthquakes are known to be a “frequent phenomenon” and therefore “it is not possible to say in advance whether an earthquake is a foreshock or an aftershock,” he added.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) implemented a Warning system Following the events of 2011 and with the aim of preventing future disasters of similar magnitude, the agency deployed this system for the first time on Thursday.
While the warning advised citizens to stay prepared, it did not explicitly call for anyone to evacuate. In fact, the JMA attempted to downplay the possibility of an imminent major danger. “The probability of a new major earthquake is higher than normal, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur,” the JMA said.
Why was a warning issued if earthquakes cannot be predicted?
The system offers the option to issue either a warning or a less severe alert level. On Thursday, an alert was sent out urging people to prepare for a possible evacuation.
Anecdotal evidence suggests the system has been effective. Although people in the country are used to receiving alerts on their phones, the “Nankai Trough” effect and the looming threat of the “Big One” caused people to pause and pay attention.
Despite the terrifying nature of these scenarios, Masayo Oshio was confused. She told the BBC: “I am baffled by the warning and don’t know what to make of it. We know we can’t predict earthquakes and we have been told for so long that the big quake will come one day, so I kept asking myself: is this it? But it doesn’t seem real to me,” the BBC reported.
“I feel like the government is overreacting,” she added.
Officials are checking the status of emergency shelters opened earlier in response to the 7.1 magnitude earthquake that struck near Nichinan in Miyazaki Prefecture on Thursday. As of Friday morning, 10 municipalities in western Japan’s Kochi Prefecture had set up at least 75 emergency shelters, according to Kyodo news agency.
Jera Co., a joint venture between Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. and Chubu Electric Power Co., said it was on emergency standby and reiterated connecting routes to fuel carriers and evacuation protocols for piers. In several cities, authorities are urging elderly residents and others to voluntarily move to safer areas.
In response to this alarming announcement Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has decided to forgo his planned trip to a summit in Central Asia and instead stay in the country for the next week to “make sure our preparations and communications are in order,” the BBC reported.
What is that “Large“
Earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 8 are classified as megaquakes. Many Japanese had to deal with the dreaded “Great Quake” – a catastrophic earthquake that occurs once every hundred years and about which they had been warned.
In the worst case scenario, the death toll is estimated at over 300,000, and a massive tsunami of up to 30 meters in height could hit the Pacific coast of the East Asian country.
What concerns do the Japanese authorities currently have?
Japan, located on the Pacific Ring of Fire, is no stranger to seismic activitywhere about 1,500 earthquakes occur every year. Most of these quakes cause only minimal damage, but there are also devastating exceptions, such as the 9.0 magnitude earthquake Earthquake in 2011 that triggered a tsunami that claimed over 18,000 lives on the northeast coast.
In 1707, a breach occurred that extended along the entire length of the Nankai Trough triggered Japan’s second largest earthquake on record, followed by the eruption of Mount Fuji. These massive “megathrust” earthquakes typically occur about every hundred years, often in pairs, with the most recent earthquakes occurring in 1944 and 1946.
Experts estimate that the probability that an earthquake measuring 8 or 9 on the Richter scale will occur somewhere along the valley floor within the next three decades is 70 to 80 percent.
According to the BBC, geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A. Hubbard called this long-awaited earthquake “the original definition of the ‘big one'” in their newsletter Earthquake Insights on Thursday. “The story of the big Nankai earthquakes is so convincingly frightening” that it is cause for concern, the two acknowledged.
What is the Nankai Trough?
The Nankai Trough off the southwestern Pacific coast of Japan is a major geological formation extending for about 900 km (600 miles). This trough was formed by the subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath the Eurasian Plate.
The convergence of these two tectonic plates along the Nankai Trough leads to the accumulation of enormous tectonic stresses over time. These built-up stresses can trigger a devastating megaquake about every 100 to 150 years, Reuters reported.
Can earthquakes really be predicted?
Robert Geller, a professor emeritus of seismology at the University of Tokyo, rejects the idea that earthquakes can be accurately predicted. In a statement to the BBC, he said: “The warning issued yesterday has almost nothing to do with science.”
He explained that earthquakes are known to be a “frequent phenomenon” and therefore “it is not possible to say in advance whether an earthquake is a foreshock or an aftershock,” he added.
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) implemented a Warning system Following the events of 2011 and with the aim of preventing future disasters of similar magnitude, the agency deployed this system for the first time on Thursday.
While the warning advised citizens to stay prepared, it did not explicitly call for anyone to evacuate. In fact, the JMA attempted to downplay the possibility of an imminent major danger. “The probability of a new major earthquake is higher than normal, but this is not an indication that a major earthquake will definitely occur,” the JMA said.
Why was a warning issued if earthquakes cannot be predicted?
The system offers the option to issue either a warning or a less severe alert level. On Thursday, an alert was sent out urging people to prepare for a possible evacuation.
Anecdotal evidence suggests the system has been effective. Although people in the country are used to receiving alerts on their phones, the “Nankai Trough” effect and the looming threat of the “Big One” caused people to pause and pay attention.
Despite the terrifying nature of these scenarios, Masayo Oshio was confused. She told the BBC: “I am baffled by the warning and don’t know what to make of it. We know we can’t predict earthquakes and we have been told for so long that the big quake will come one day, so I kept asking myself: is this it? But it doesn’t seem real to me,” the BBC reported.
“I feel like the government is overreacting,” she added.
Officials are checking the status of emergency shelters opened earlier in response to the 7.1 magnitude earthquake that struck near Nichinan in Miyazaki Prefecture on Thursday. As of Friday morning, 10 municipalities in western Japan’s Kochi Prefecture had set up at least 75 emergency shelters, according to Kyodo news agency.
Jera Co., a joint venture between Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. and Chubu Electric Power Co., said it was on emergency standby and reiterated connecting routes to fuel carriers and evacuation protocols for piers. In several cities, authorities are urging elderly residents and others to voluntarily move to safer areas.
