The Arizona Wildcats are ranked 21st in the Associated Press preseason poll, which is fine, kind of cool, certainly rare in the last quarter century… and merely an indication of what this season might bring.
Here we stand on the verge of what may be the most fascinating, exciting and rewarding Wildcats football season ever.
Consider: A new, likable coach (Brent Brennan), a new conference (hello, Big 12!), a star QB (Noah Fifita), the best receiver in America (a fully healthy Tetairoa McMillan), more first-round talent (offensive lineman Jonah Savaiinaea) — and plenty of other good signs — all wrapped up in an expanded playoff system that will continue to ratchet up the excitement through November.
So, yes, number 21 is fine. For now.
But can the Wildcats be one of twelve to make the expanded postseason?
As I wrote this summer for Lindy’s College Football Annuals, the 12-team playoff finally offers real access – three times as much as before – to programs that aren’t among the high-profile teams that dominated the decade of the four-team College Football Playoff.
It’s no longer just about finishing either at the top of the SEC and Big Ten OR courting votes to get into one of the other two spots. Now it’s more about winning your damn games and then getting in.
Because the five highest-ranked conference champions are in the field (that is, a team from the American Athletic, Mountain West, Sun Belt, Mid-American or Conference USA will receive a bid), non-champions of a major conference will likely need to finish at least 11th in the standings to secure a spot.
Teams from the Big 4 conferences that begin the final month with two – or even three! – losses remain within reach.
We did the math.
Over the past decade (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season), 89 percent of teams that finished 11th or 12th in the final regular-season standings had at least two losses, and 50 percent had three.
This means – just like Utah in 2021 and Washington in 2022 – that teams don’t even have to be in the top 25 when November begins and can still rise far enough (11th or 12th) by Selection Day to make the playoffs.
From now on, as we reach the end of October, any team that is 7-2 or even 6-3 – or still has a chance at the conference title – can still ask, “Why not us?” and “Let’s win!”
That will make for some exciting games in the final month. Let’s say the worst-case scenario is that the Wildcats stumble in late September with road losses at Kansas State and Utah and are now 2-2. All they need is one good month in a relatively weak October (vs. Texas Tech, at BYU, vs. Colorado, vs. West Virginia) to get them back into the Big 12 title and College Football Playoffs in November.
This will be fun.
How will the Wildcats perform?
So, forecast time:
I’m sure I’ve forgotten a lot over the course of the year, but honestly I can’t remember a major conference that had more participants at the top than the 2024 Big 12.
The league media picked Utah as the conference winner, but I prefer Oklahoma State. Kansas State and Kansas are others in the AP rankings along with the Wildcats. I ask everyone not to underestimate Iowa State and West Virginia. UCF will be dangerous. Texas Tech is another tough opponent. I’m not quite sure what to think of TCU, but I like coach Sonny Dykes and, not to mention, the Frogs were still playing for the national title in the 2022 season.
There is no surefire national championship contender among them, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one of the top seven won the league.
That’s a long way of saying Arizona will play a series of exciting games with some wins and some losses that will require some Wildcat players to emerge as heroes in the fourth quarter. When it’s all over, let’s call it 9-3 overall, 7-2 in conference.
Will that be enough for a spot in the Big 12 title game and beyond?
Maybe. Maybe not.
But when fresh storylines and tremendous talent collide, the road to that answer becomes one hell of an exciting ride.
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Top image: Arizona Wildcats quarterback Noah Fifita runs with the ball against Oklahoma in the 2023 Alamo Bowl. (Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports)
