PA Governor Josh Shapiro receives support from Montco residents as possible vice presidential candidate
Greg Wagner of Jenkintown shares his thoughts on the vetting of Gov. Josh Shapiro as Kamala Harris’s running mate on Monday, July 22, 2024.
The last time Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro served as a keynote speaker in an election, he and many of his Democratic colleagues hosted a post-election celebration.
Shapiro’s 2022 gubernatorial campaign culminated in his comfortable victory and ascension from the attorney general’s office to the governor’s mansion. His political party, meanwhile, captured a seat in the U.S. Senate and regained control of the state’s House of Representatives for the first time in more than a decade.
Robert Speel, an associate professor at Penn State University in Behrend College, said that while Shapiro as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate would not have guaranteed a “blue wave” re-election this year, he might have turned the odds for Republicans in at least some of the lower-ballot races.
“Shapiro’s candidacy might have given all Democrats a little boost,” said Speel, who majors in political science and serves as director of the campus’s Public Policy Initiative. “His popularity in polls in Pennsylvania has been consistently high.”
Although Shapiro was vetted and considered as a finalist, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz was named Harris’s vice presidential running mate instead last week.
“Democrats hope to win enough seats to take the Senate majority in November,” Speel said. “Shapiro probably would have given Democrats in the southeastern part of the state a small boost if he had been on the ballot.”
Even without the once-hypothetical Harris-Shapiro ticket, Democratic strategist Britt Crampsie told the USA TODAY Network that she is comfortable with her party’s chances in the Commonwealth this November.
“The Democratic platform and energy is joyful right now,” Crampsie said. “We have good ideas … and the tone is very different than what we see in the (Donald) Trump campaign.”
According to Crampsie, who has worked with both public office and legislative candidates, there are concrete paths for Democrats to win in all areas.
Their goals include a Democratic three-way victory in Harrisburg. Democrats hold the governorship through Shapiro, have a narrow lead in the House of Representatives, and would need to win only three seats in the Senate to gain full control of the legislative process in Pennsylvania.
“Shapiro has accomplished a lot with what he has, but the legislature really changes everything,” Crampsie said.
She pointed out that Democrats have steadily eroded the Republican majority in the state Senate, gaining six seats since 2018. Flipping that Senate to a blue state could bring a number of changes to Pennsylvania, including a higher minimum wage, legalization of recreational marijuana and new gun control laws.
“I think progress is doomed to failure,” Crampsie said.
The federal elections in Pennsylvania could also be decisive. The state has several contested seats that could change the balance of power in Washington, DC, where Democrats control the Senate and Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives.
Aidan Johnson, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said he did not believe Shapiro would have made much of a difference.
“Our frontrunners and Democratic challengers will win this November because they have built independent, common-sense campaigns while their opponents are just parroting the pundits on Fox News,” Johnson said in a statement to the USA TODAY Network. “The key to success in this election has always been the quality of the candidates, not who is at the top of the ticket.”
On the other side of the campaign trail, Republicans also downplayed Shapiro’s potential to influence the elections for the next three seats on the ballot.
Michael Straw, communications director for the Senate Republican Campaign Committee in Pennsylvania, said Shapiro would not have changed the electoral outlook at all. He said lower-tier Democrats would have difficulty distancing themselves from their party’s reputation for solving problems such as inflation and illegal immigration.
“Ultimately, our Democratic opponents in the Senate do not have the track record I would want to run with,” Straw said.
Others say a nomination bid without Shapiro could be a boon for Democrats in Pennsylvania. Jennie Sweet-Cushman, an associate professor at Chatham University, said the governor’s emergence into the national spotlight could backfire for his party.
“People are just disgusted by American politics and I don’t think it takes much to change that,” she said.
One advantage for Democrats on the lower ballots would have been an influx of campaign funds. Sweet-Cushman noted that Shapiro could also be a strong spokesperson for his party in general, as he is a proven and articulate speaker.
“I would not be discouraged if he faced JD Vance in a vice presidential debate or in the media,” she said.
The concern about Shapiro on the Harris ballot, Sweet-Cushman said, is that his “vulnerabilities” are getting increasing attention. Leftists within his party may have been discouraged by his vocal support of school choice and his pro-Israel comments on the war in Gaza.
Among voters, criticism of his handling of the lengthy investigation into a 2011 death and the scandal surrounding the sexual harassment of one of his staffers is likely to damage his future political prospects.
Family members and lawyers for Ellen Greenberg, whose death was ruled a suicide by a Philadelphia medical examiner, have criticized Shapiro’s handling of the case. His office recuse itself in 2022 because of the “appearance of a conflict of interest” in the investigation, which includes evidence that at least some of Greenberg’s stab wounds occurred after her death.
Numerous Republicans in the House have similarly reignited the outcry against Shapiro’s former budget negotiator, Mike Vereb, who resigned last year after a subordinate filed a complaint accusing Vereb of blatant and persistent sexual harassment.
Sweet-Cushman pointed out that some of Shapiro’s political weaknesses did not exist when he ran for governor in 2022. Others were not effectively exploited by his opponent, Republican Sen. Doug Mastriano of Franklin, who was underfunded and did little campaigning outside of far-right circles.
“If we give a lot of negative attention to the vice presidential candidate and incumbent governor of Pennsylvania, that negativity could turn voters in general or independent voters or swing voters away from the Democrats,” Sweet-Cushman said.
Bruce Siwy is a reporter for the U.S. Today Network’s bureau in Pennsylvania’s capital city. Reach him at [email protected] or on X at @BruceSiwy.
