A system developing in the Atlantic could soon become the next tropical depression of the season, as a tropical storm warning will be issued for parts of the Caribbean on Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In the 5 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center said the broad low-pressure system with more organized showers and thunderstorms is located 1,530 miles east-southeast of Antigua and is moving west-northwest at 21 mph (33 kph). The system has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (48 kph).
The French government has issued a tropical storm warning for Guadeloupe and St. Martin. Also affected by a tropical storm warning are St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Saba, St. Maarten and St. Eustatius.
“The disturbance is forecast to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and approach the U.S. and British Virgin Islands on Tuesday evening,” meteorologists said.
The system is expected to approach the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, by mid-week.
Rainfall between 3 and 6 inches (maximum 10 inches) is expected in Puerto Rico, while the northern Leeward Islands can expect up to 4 to 6 inches (10 to 15 cm) of rainfall, the NHC said. Rainfall between 1 and 2 inches (2.5 to 5 cm) is expected for the Leeward Islands through Friday morning, between 2 and 4 inches (5 to 10 cm) for the southern Leeward Islands, and between 2 and 4 inches (5 to 10 cm) for eastern Hispaniola.
The NHC gives the system an 80 percent chance of developing in the next two days and a 90 percent chance in the next seven days.
Long-range weather forecast models are increasingly suggesting that the system will turn north before the end of the week, but it is still too early to predict with any certainty where the system will head.
Once circulation begins and the system develops, forecast models become more reliable.
If it were to develop into a named system, it could become Tropical Storm Ernesto.
“It is too early to say if this system will have a direct impact on east-central Florida,” the National Weather Service in Melbourne wrote in its long-term forecast. “At a minimum, we could see sustained waves reaching the coast by the end of the week, which could lead to rough surf and a high risk of rip currents.”
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has seen four named storms so far, including two hurricanes. The last, Hurricane Debby, made landfall in Florida’s Big Bend on Monday as a Category 1 hurricane. It then weakened to a tropical storm and dropped heavy rains as it moved eastward into the Atlantic, turned north, and made a second landfall in South Carolina on Thursday.
As hurricane season peaks from mid-August to October, storm production is expected to increase.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its forecast for the season this week and is now predicting an extremely active season with 17 to 24 named storms, of which 8 to 13 will be hurricanes. Of those, 4 to 7 would become major hurricanes.
The official hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
©2024 Orlando Sentinel. Visit orlandosentinel.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
• • •
5 things you should know about the 2024 hurricane season, according to meteorologists.
Meteorologists are predicting an “extremely active” hurricane season for 2024. Here’s why.
Could Tampa Bay Flood Insurance Increase After a Hurricane? A Warning from Hurricane Ian
Want to know which areas in Tampa Bay are flooded? Here’s where to look.
Checklists for assembling all types of storm equipment.
