Following President Joe Biden’s poor performance in the debate against Donald Trump in June, the New York Times reported that the former president had managed to secure his “largest lead” since 2015, according to Times/Siena polls.
When Biden then withdrew his candidacy for re-election and named Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor, “a funny thing happened,” writes Atlantic editor David Graham in a report on Sunday, August 18.
Graham argues that the former president is not becoming the new and better Trump that some “Republicans had promised him after the failed assassination attempt,” but is falling back into the old behavioral patterns of 2016.
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“Meet the new Trump, who is just like the old Trump,” writes the Atlantic’s editor. “He is returning to the long campaign press conferences he held in 2016, including two last week. He is planning a fresh start large Open-air ralliesdespite the death threat.”
Graham points out that the MAGA candidate is even staffing his campaign and potential administration with many of the same people – from 2016 Trump campaign adviser Corey Lewandowski – who was fired the same year – to 2016 Trump campaign adviser Roger Stone.
“You can understand why Trump would want to return to what he thinks worked in 2016,” Graham writes, but he faces two major challenges. First, he simply can’t pull off what he did then. The gimmick is no longer fresh; remembering why those events were so compelling back then can be difficult. He’s also eight years older, and sometimes that’s very obvious.”
The Atlantic writer adds: “Second, most people don’t like him, and that’s always been the case. Trump’s success in 2016 was based less on his campaign than on the fact that many voters didn’t like Hillary Clinton either. (Still, more voted for her than for him.) In 2020, Trump lost when he ran against a popular Biden. He was ahead in the 2024 polls, largely because Biden was no longer popular, but now that he’s been replaced by the more attractive Harris, Trump faces the problem of American permanent anti-MAGA majority.”
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Instead of becoming who the former president’s MAGA allies say he is, “Trump is turning over an old leaf,” Graham concludes.
Graham’s full report is available at this link (subscription required).
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