The United States is stepping up efforts to prevent a possible Iranian attack on Israel as tensions in the region reach a critical point, according to a report by the Wall Street JournalThe Biden administration faces the challenge of containing Iran’s actions, which could exceed the scale of the missile and drone attack on Israel in April.
US officials have issued stern warnings to Tehran, directly and through intermediaries, that an attack on Israel could have serious consequences for the Iranian government and economy. The situation has put both countries in a precarious position, with neither seeking this escalation but now forced to manage the possibility of a larger conflict.
“We really don’t know if they will do it, when they will do it and with what force they will do it. We don’t have any firm answers to any of this at the moment,” said a senior government official. WSJ“But we believe that an attack of some kind could well occur, possibly soon and without much warning.”
The current crisis was sparked by an attack in Tehran that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Iran blamed Israel for the attack. The incident came shortly after an Israeli strike killed a Hezbollah commander in Beirut. New Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian claimed his country had the “legal right” to retaliate.
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has signaled that it will cooperate with White House efforts to de-escalate the situation and has agreed to participate in US-organized ceasefire talks. However, Israel has also threatened a harsh response to any Iranian attack and has not ruled out an offensive in southern Lebanon if Hezbollah strikes.
President Biden told reporters on Tuesday he expects Iran to refrain from attacks if the parties reach an agreement, but acknowledged that it will be “more difficult” to reach a ceasefire agreement. US officials are travelling to Qatar for another round of diplomatic talks. White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre said: “We expect these talks to move forward as planned.”
Hamas has announced it will not participate in negotiations this week, and Netanyahu has shown little willingness to compromise in recent months. US officials admit that the possibility of a comprehensive agreement is becoming increasingly remote, prompting the drafting of a “bridge proposal” to resolve differences between Hamas and Israel.
Dalia Dassa Kaye, a Middle East security expert at UCLA’s Burkle Center for International Relations, noted: “Without a ceasefire, it is difficult to imagine the Iranians or even Hezbollah backing down.”
Iran faces several difficult options, each of which carries significant disadvantages. A withdrawal could be perceived as weakness, while a massive attack could lead to a larger conflict and Israeli retaliation. A repeat of the April barrage could appear ineffective and increase the risk of a larger war.
“There is no doubt an intense debate within the Iranian leadership about how to respond, as none of their options look good,” Kaye told the WSJThe Biden administration’s original strategy of containing Iran through a revival of the nuclear deal and regional alliances has been challenged by Tehran’s actions, including its support for proxies who killed U.S. troops in Jordan and its support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Iran’s decision to attack Israel directly in April marked a significant departure from its usual proxy approach. The US responded by deploying additional military assets in the region, including F-22 Raptors and the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier battle group. A senior administration official told WSJ“We know they’re paying attention to our messages. We don’t know if it changes their minds.”
However, Dana Stroul, a former senior Pentagon civilian for the Middle East, warned that Iran was unlikely to stop its aggressive behavior: “By exaggerating its desire to avoid a full-scale war, Iran interpreted this as a lack of U.S. will to take offensive action.”
